摘要：A modified version of a system dynamics model constructed for an EU-wide case-study project (TOP-MARD) using STELLA software was used to simulate the effects of a number of development scenarios for a remote rural area in Northern Scotland, i.e. Caithness & Sutherland, which is characterised by a high regional importance of agriculture for the local economy. In this paper, the context of the modelling work in policy and socio-economic terms is first described. This is followed by the specification of the model and of the several modelling scenarios, which relate to the reconfiguration of Pillar 2 spending within the area and an reversal of recent Structural Funds spending for 2007 onwards. The modelling results are discussed, in terms of regional population and economic trends, from 2001 to 2015. Finally, some conclusions are drawn, both about the implications of the results for such remote rural regions, and about the usefulness of this type of modelling exercise for policy analysis of rural development measures.
