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  • 标题:Dinâmica da epidemia de AIDS no Município do Rio de Janeiro, no período de 1988-1996: uma aplicação de análise estatística espaço-temporal
  • 其他标题:Spatial-temporal modeling: dynamics of the AIDS epidemic in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1988-1996
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Szwarcwald, Célia Landmann ; Bastos, Francisco Inácio ; Barcellos, Christovam
  • 期刊名称:Cadernos de Saúde Pública
  • 印刷版ISSN:0102-311X
  • 电子版ISSN:1678-4464
  • 出版年度:2001
  • 卷号:17
  • 期号:5
  • 页码:1123-1140
  • DOI:10.1590/S0102-311X2001000500014
  • 语种:Portuguese
  • 出版社:Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública,Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
  • 摘要:

    This study uses a spatial-temporal model to analyze the spatial spread of the AIDS epidemic (adult cases) in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during three periods: 1988-1990, 1991-1993, and 1994-1996. City districts were used as the geographic units of analysis. A spatial analysis was also performed for pediatric AIDS cases due to vertical HIV transmission, according to period of birth, 1985-90 and 1991-96. For total adult AIDS cases, the initial period was characterized by a polygonal cluster located around the harbor area, which expanded from west to east. Among homosexual cases, in situ growth predominated, and a decrease in the intensity of the diffusion process was observed from the second to the final period. Among heterosexual cases, the epidemic displayed a relevant geographic spread, mainly from 1988-1990 to 1991-1993. Among female cases in the final time period, a cluster of high incidence rates was found towards the northwest, including very poor areas. Among pediatric cases in 1991-1996, a significant correlation was found between AIDS incidence rates and poverty levels in the respective municipal districts. The results suggest that a more complete understanding of AIDS spatial-temporal dynamics can make a major contribution to preventive measures.

  • 关键词:Análise Espacial;Análise Temporal;Síndrome de Imunideficiência Adquirida
  • 其他关键词:Spatial Analysis;Temporal Analysis;Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
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