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  • 标题:Taxas bayesianas para o mapeamento de homicídios nos municípios brasileiros
  • 其他标题:Bayesian rates for homicide mapping in Brazilian municipalities
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Carvalho, Alexandre Xavier Ywata de ; Silva, Gabriela Drummond Marques da ; Almeida Júnior, Gilberto Rezende de
  • 期刊名称:Cadernos de Saúde Pública
  • 印刷版ISSN:0102-311X
  • 电子版ISSN:1678-4464
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 卷号:28
  • 期号:7
  • 页码:1249-1262
  • DOI:10.1590/S0102-311X2012000700004
  • 语种:Portuguese
  • 出版社:Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública,Fundação Oswaldo Cruz
  • 摘要:

    This study analyzes homicide incidence per municipality (county) in Brazil in the year 2008. The authors estimate and compare homicide rates according to different methods, finding evidence that depending on the method employed, the results can differ significantly, especially for small municipalities. Bayesian spatial procedures were employed, allowing minimization of variation in the rate estimates. The methods consider a priori distributions and information on contiguity of municipalities. According to the findings, the impact of corrective procedures is not relevant for large municipalities, but such estimates present significant differences for small municipalities. Comparing the different estimates, the authors conclude that there may be distortions in the rates published in the literature. To overcome such potential distortions, it is necessary to take the main goal in each analysis into account. When the emphasis is on overall visualization of the homicide phenomenon, the best option is spatial corrections. However, to obtain more accurate local estimates, Bayesian methods are more appropriate.

  • 关键词:Homicídio;Taxa de Mortalidade;Análise Estatística
  • 其他关键词:Homicide;Mortality Rate;Statistical Analysis
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