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  • 标题:Real interest parity decomposition
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Ferreira, Alex Luiz ; Silva, Roseli da
  • 期刊名称:Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo)
  • 印刷版ISSN:0101-4161
  • 电子版ISSN:1980-5357
  • 出版年度:2009
  • 卷号:39
  • 期号:3
  • 页码:489-512
  • DOI:10.1590/S0101-41612009000300002
  • 语种:Portuguese
  • 出版社:Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da FEA-USP
  • 摘要:

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the general causes of real interest rate differentials (rids) for a sample of emerging markets for the period of January 1996 to August 2007. To this end, two methods are applied. The first consists of breaking the variance of rids down into relative purchasing power pariety and uncovered interest rate parity and shows that inflation differentials are the main source of rids variation; while the second method breaks down the rids and nominal interest rate differentials (nids) into nominal and real shocks. Bivariate autoregressive models are estimated under particular identification conditions, having been adequately treated for the identified structural breaks. Impulse response functions and error variance decomposition result in real shocks as being the likely cause of rids.

  • 关键词:diferencial de juros reais;países emergentes;quebras estruturais;decomposição da variância dos erros de previsão
  • 其他关键词:real interest rate differentials;emerging markets;structural breaks;breakdown of prediction errors variance
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