摘要：Comprehensive transportation Channel is the backbone of the regional transport system. The Channel structure configuration is a direct means of adjusting channel development state to meet the needs of traveler. By using fundamental analysis of the affecting factors and mechanism of passenger structure evolution within comprehensive transportation Channel, this paper presents a model on the basis of Markov chain theory to predict passenger structure evolution. We verified the quality and accuracy of the parameters in this paper, and implemented this model successfully in Beijing-Shanghai Channel. This application indicated that the integration model was effective and efficient in dynamic traffic demand forecasting. This study makes crucial contributions to the theory of comprehensive transportation system.
关键词：Comprehensive Transportation Channel;Passenger structure;Prediction;Markov process;Least square method;Orthogonal test
